There is a new Gallup poll out that finds the country may be moving to right. In fact, it shows exactly this, with a decisive trend in favor of the GOP since Barrack Obama was elected president in 2008. Can there be any doubt that the way in which Obama has governed can be considered a big part of why these numbers are moving as they have been? Let’s take a look.
Back in 2008, when Obama was first elected as our community organizer in chief, the make-up of each state was much different than it is today. At that time, there were 35 states considered to be ‘Democratic.’ According to these Gallup numbers, that meant either being solidly Democratic (29 states) or leaning Democratic (6 states). Today, this number is down to only 17 states. These numbers, incidentally, are based on in-house polling data that measures the party affiliation of voters.
Looking closer at some of these details reveals a number of other interesting facts. Between 2012 and 2013 the number of Democratic states dropped from 19 to 17 and the number of Republican states increased from 12 to 14. Essentially, the political composition of the country was almost evenly divided, with 17 Democratic states, 14 Republican states, and the rest being classified as ‘competitive.’
Take a look at this chart of the data for yourself:
This obviously shows that party affiliation changes over the last few years have benefited the Republicans greatly. The total number of blue states have now dropped to a razor thin 3 state edge for the Democrats. Recent trends also indicate that this gap is only going to continue narrowing.
This should also clearly indicate that the Democrats have a big problem in the upcoming 2014 elections. They currently hold only a 6-seat majority in the Senate, which is in serious jeopardy by the fact that they are needing to defend vulnerable seats in at least three red states. Not to mention that ALL of their incumbent Senators will have a problem since they all voted for ObamaCare. This will be a ‘safe’ issue in only a very few number of states and/or only with Senators who hold very secure positions. Plus, there are many Representatives with similar problems, indicating the potential for the Republicans to increase their majority in this house. Definitely, the political climate appears to be much more favorable to the Republicans than it has in quite some time.
On the other hand, party affiliation alone does not guarantee victory, or even voter turn out. There is really no way of knowing who will show up on election day. This is, of course, one of the main reasons for both sides campaigned so hard for get out the vote type organizations. This also indicates that despite the very poor approval numbers for Obama, if he does manage somehow to turn these around a bit it could help Democratic candidates greatly.
In other words, the Republicans have a real opportunity here. However, they need to be careful not to squander this chance. Continue fighting for true conservative values and principles.
What do YOU think? Have you noticed this shift in the country to the right? Are more of your friends members of the GOP and possibly some other conservative third parties than in recent years? Do you think this gives the Republicans a strong opportunity to re-take the Senate and possibly also the White House in the next election cycle?