Sure, it’s still early to be seriously talking about 2016. But, these poll numbers (swinging wildly right now) are still very interesting. In fact, I think anyone who is concerned about Hillary Clinton possibly becoming the next President will find this information fascinating as well.
We now have two candidates officially in the 2016 race—Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, both of the GOP side. As you might imagine, this has given both of them a nice bump in their popularity. I saw just the other day a promotional mailer where the Ted Cruz campaign claimed to be in a dead heat with Jeb Bush. Of course, Bush hasn’t declared yet, although there is really little doubt he will. I also haven’t seen any hard numbers or poll results to support that claim, but it is still interesting.
Hillary Losing Lead Over GOP Candidates
Still, many people seem to think Hillary has this air of invincibility around her…or that she is some heir apparent. This poll will challenge these assumptions. Her advantage has dropped seven to ten points over most GOP candidates (and possible candidates) just since February. The three strongest against her seem to be Senators Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Governor Scott Walker. More from PPP:
“PPP’s newest national Presidential poll finds Hillary Clinton leading the field of potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 3 to 9 points. Her advantage is down from being ahead 7 to 10 points against the various GOP contenders on our February poll.
Even with her advantage over the Republican field on the decline, Clinton is still clearly a stronger candidate than anyone else the Democrats might put forward at this point. Clinton leads Scott Walker, who currently leads in our national GOP polling, 46-42. By comparison, Joe Biden (46-40) and Elizabeth Warren (43-39) would both trail Walker in hypothetical match ups.
In addition to Walker, two other GOP hopefuls come within 4 points of Clinton. Marco Rubio trails her just 46-43 and Rand Paul’s deficit is 46-42. He actually does better than anyone else on his side with independents, leading Clinton by 14 points at 47-33. But the 77 percent of the Republican vote he gets against Clinton is the lowest of any candidate other than Chris Christie.”
Trouble For Hillary?
It might be that the longer Hillary sits in the spotlight, the worse it will go for her. She is certainly a highly polarizing figure. It should be very interesting to see what happens once tough questions are asked of her, especially regarding some of the things that happened during her time as Secretary of State.
The poll itself is an interesting sample and cross section of voters. It was just shy of 1,000 registered voters at 989. This included 449 Democratic primary voters and it was a D+8 poll, although the ideological breakdown did skew towards the right. There were 41 percent of the respondents identifying themselves as conservative, 33 percent as liberal, and 26 as moderate. Fifty-three percent were women, 47 percent were men. Looking at racial breakdowns, 9 percent were Hispanic, 74 percent were white, 12 percent were African American, and 6 percent represented other ethnicities.
So, what do YOU think we can learn from this poll about Hillary? About the Republican field?